An arcane rule in the NHL CBA may have kept the Edmonton Oilers from signing Vladimir Tkachev, but that doesn’t mean the NHL isn’t in his future. In his first five games in the QMJHL, Tkachev is out-producing every single forward from that league who was selected in the 2014 Draft.
The following chart shows all the picks from 2014 and their performance to date, ranked by points-per-game. I’ve also endeavoured to add any players passed over in the draft who have scored at least a point-per-game in the early going:
The really scary thing is that Tkachev is on a bit of a cold streak at the moment. He has eight assists through five games, but just a single goal on 21 shots. That translates to a 4.8 shooting percentage, which is roughly one quarter of what Tkachev managed in 2013-14 (10 goals on 54 shots, 18.5 shooting percentage). Tkachev is also 1-for-2 in the shootout, with his goal standing up as the winner.
The other player I’ve highlighted on the chart above is Ivan Barbashev, a teammate of Tkachev in Moncton. Barbashev is a superb prospect, a do-it-all centre who is also an excellent scorer. He’s of interest to Oilers’ fans because he was the St. Louis Blues’ pick at No. 33 overall last summer – that’s the pick that went to Missouri along with Magnus Paajarvi as the trade return for David Perron. Barbashev is riding a bit of a shooting percentage bubble at the moment (seven goals on 24 shots, 29.2 shooting percentage) but he’s a player to keep an eye on long-term.
If Tkachev can keep up his current pace, he’s going to be drafted for sure in 2015. Where? That’s the question. There is a lot of talent beyond Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, and Tkachev’s size is going to work against him, but even so he could be a pretty early pick. Craig Button has him ranked No. 46 on his October list, and somewhere in the second round seems pretty plausible for this player right now.
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